Summer Solstice Report
The Summer Solstice Report is the second edition of Clockwork’s biannual, high-signal briefing for asset owners, institutional investors, family offices, and private capital allocators. Drawing on insights from Carta, CB Insights, UBS, PitchBook, and others, it distils the complex forces shaping capital formation, allocation, and risk across private markets.
It turns noise into clear strategic insights that we want to share, as part of our mission, with private allocators at no cost; no email or data collection is needed.
TL;DR: What to Take With You
- Markets aren’t resetting or recovering, they’re recalibrating. In this phase, positioning and pacing matter more than prediction.
- Fewer deals, more conviction: Capital is clustering in winners, especially in early-stage AI. The result is deeper bets across fewer companies.
- Dry powder isn’t idle, it’s waiting: With $2T+ on the sidelines, timing and structure are more strategic than ever.
- Liquidity is a constraint and catalyst: As exit timelines stretch, investors are rethinking how and when capital returns, driving innovation in structures and reshaping strategies across the private market stack.
- The risk lens has shifted: It’s less about pricing assets, more about navigating timing, liquidity, and execution under pressure.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
A high-level briefing on the capital trends shaping private markets in 2025 – from AI dominance to liquidity constraints and concentrated dealmaking.
1. Global Macro & Market Compass
A scenario-based outlook on rates, inflation, and geopolitical tension, plus how allocators are shifting portfolio construction around policy volatility.
2. Venture, The Rebuild
Venture capital is compressing toward AI, with mega-deals distorting the early stage and secondaries emerging as strategic entry points.
3. Private Equity: Pacing, Pressure, and Performance
Exit delays, secondary sales, and recap structures are forcing GPs to rethink liquidity timing and alignment across the fund lifecycle.
4. Credit, Liquidity & the Hunt for Certainty
Private credit remains central, but risks are rising and liquidity tools are evolving fast. Includes insights from Wyatt Cavalier on real-world alternatives.
5. Sustainability on Trial
A global snapshot of how ESG is diverging across regions—from politicized pullbacks in the U.S. to deep policy integration in the EU.
6. Family Offices: From Stewards to Strategists
With insight from Mr. Family Office, this section explores how family offices are deploying capital with speed, precision, and personalization.